Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,207$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(118 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(0.496 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(35.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,302$ on 2020-06-07

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,285$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(454 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,596,459.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 154.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,596,459.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $998$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(19.6 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,644.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 98.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,644.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,923$ on 2020-06-07

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,154$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(904 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,174.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.6)}}\) (asimptote \(12,174.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $707$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(145 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{633.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 32.1)}}\) (asimptote \(633.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,730$ on 2020-06-07

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,016$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(66.8 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,197.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 89.8)}}\) (asimptote \(11,197.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(9.97 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(120.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,394$ on 2020-06-07

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $34,079$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(516 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{330,444.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 128.1)}}\) (asimptote \(330,444.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,237$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(84.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,422.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 79.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,422.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,881$ on 2020-06-07

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,049$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(0.296 \times 10^{0.050t}\) (doubling rate \(6.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,932.1}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 71.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,932.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(0.00699 \times 10^{0.056t}\) (doubling rate \(5.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{250.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 78.8)}}\) (asimptote \(250.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $886$ on 2020-06-07

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,101$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(47 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,687.1}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 64.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,687.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(0.715 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 69.6)}}\) (asimptote \(31.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-07

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $554$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(26.4 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{562.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 55.9)}}\) (asimptote \(562.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5$ on 2020-06-07

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $309$ on 2020-06-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Morocco recovered 80%
Chad recovered 76%
Guinea recovered 28%
Algeria recovered 14%

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,224$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,234.7}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,234.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $208$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(72.6 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{197.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 21.0)}}\) (asimptote \(197.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $652$ on 2020-06-07

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $837$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(76.1 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865.9}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(865.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(20.2 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66.2}{1 + 10^{-0.090 (t - 13.5)}}\) (asimptote \(66.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $96$ on 2020-06-07

Guinea⮸

Population $13,132,795$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,117$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(410 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,463.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,463.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(5.59 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(28.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,217$ on 2020-06-07